There is a lot of consternation about elections in light of Covid-19 and concerns about safety and security in polling places. Louisiana announced that it is postponing its presidential primary from April 4 to June 20. Georgia is pushing back its presidential primary from March 24 to May 19. This has led to a lot of concerns—and, I think, some more conspiracy theory-oriented scenarios—about “postponing” the 2020 presidential election.

It’s probably useful to work backwards from the dates the terms of office begin: terms for Congress begin January 3 and the terms for President and Vice President begin January 20. Those are hard-wired into the Twentieth Amendment of the Constitution.

If a president “shall not have been chosen” by Inauguration Day, it falls to the Vice President. If not the Vice President, then to the Speaker of the House, the president pro tempore of the Senate, the Secretary of State, and on down the line of succession.

So if there is a delayed election, regardless of when the election takes place, President Trump and Vice President Pence have their terms of office end January 20, 2021. And if there is a delayed election, regardless of when the election takes place, the entire House of Representatives and 1/3 of the United States Senate end their terms on January 3, 2021. In that exceedingly unlikely scenario (no President, Vice President, or Speaker), the president pro tempore chosen out of the remaining Senate would be acting President.

So let’s kick it back farther. Election Day is set by federal statute for the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. That’s a federal law. So for that date to be changed, you’d need Congress to alter it, and the president to sign that law. It would not be up to particular states. And, keep in mind, Congress would look to that hard January 3 date when the terms of office of most members of Congress would end. So any movement on the date, I think, would actually look to move it earlier, not later. Or, Congress could establish greater early voting opportunities like vote by mail rules for federal elections. States could do the same—as long as they keep November 3, 2020 in mind.

States could also adjust their state primary elections for Congress, which range from March to September. They are free to adjust those—again, keeping in mind the November date.

For presidential primaries, the rules are even fuzzier. The primaries are largely party-dictated affairs. The Democratic and Republican National Committees have some rules about when primaries can be held. No state except Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, or South Carolina can hold a contest before March. (Recall the Democratic fight over Michigan and Florida in 2008.) States can’t have primaries in past mid-June.

So the Democratic Party will decide whether to grant an exception for Louisiana’s late date. Both parties apparently don’t oppose the choice to move the primaries. The parties decide whether or not to count delegates chosen, because the parties dictate the rules. State laws indicate when parties have to file the names of presidential and vice presidential candidates to appear on the ballot, typically late summer; but the rest of the process remains largely with the parties.

Georgia’s decision to postpone will merge its presidential primary with other federal and state primaries, so it’s a rather efficient decision. At the same time, the decision to postpone a primary may be a fairly convenient decision here—it is far less convenient to think about postponing a general election. And given the constitutional barriers defining the end of terms of office, coupled with federal statutes dictating when federal elections must take place, it is unlikely those dates will yield, regardless of what barriers arise ahead.

Special thanks to Professor Brian Kalt for helping me think through pieces of this.