Last fall, I noted that federal judges were announcing future vacancies a historically low rate ahead of Election Day. I posited several reasons why that might be the case, but recent events suggest it’s attributable to partisan reasons.

Here’s the difference between November 1 future vacancies in a presidential election year, with February 1 future vacancies after the election:

November 1, 2000: 11 - February 1, 2001: 9

November 1, 2004: 23 - February 1, 2005: 17

November 1, 2008: 19 - February 1, 2009: 10

November 1, 2012: 19 - February 1, 2013: 19

November 1, 2016: 17 - February 1, 2017: 13

November 1, 2020: 2 - February 1, 2021: 15

That 2021 figure is deceptively low. Another 5 federal judges announced their intention to go senior in the first week of February. Several others took senior status since January 20.

(Maybe unsurprisingly, some judges announce a year-end plan to retire (12/31 or 1/1), which occurs between Election Day and a new presidential administration. I think that’s why a number of announced future vacancies convert to actual vacancies.)

I’m sure there’s more precise ways of examining these figures going forward, and it’ll take some time for the full effects to shake out. But we’re witnessing an extremely high rate of announcements from federal judges, timed to a new presidential administration and razor-thin co-partisan control of the Senate.