It was difficult to project much about the bar exam last fall given the pandemic. Jurisdictions made many changes to how they administered the exam. When the MBE scores were released last year, usually a harbinger of overall pass rates, we saw just 5700 July 2020 test-takers, down from 45,000 or so in a typical July. Many states developed novel exams; some changed cut scores or offered versions of “diploma privilege.” Early signs in some jurisdictions, however, pointed to dropping passing rates.

Now the MBE scores have been released, and the scores are a drop from July 2019—but still consistent with scores between 2014 and 2019.

I opted to leave the July 2020 MBE information blank in the chart, as it offers little for historical comparison (although it was much higher last year). You can see that scores bottomed out in 2018 at 139.5, so the 140.4 this year is a bit above that. Nevertheless, the decline from July 2019 suggests that bar passage rates continue to be a challenge for law schools and graduating law students. (Of course, the lower MBE mean does not automatically translate to lower bar pass rates, but it does portend that result.) We’ll see what individual jurisdictions continue to reveal in the weeks ahead.