A more difficult bar exam, or a sign of declining student quality?
I saw this thread at Top-Law-Schools about bar passage rates apparently somewhat lower than previous years. Thanks to link aggregation of bar statistics at Deceptively Blonde, I could start comparing results to the NCBEX annual statistics (PDF). Unfortunately, due to selectivity of statistical releases at this point, it's not possible at this moment to get a sufficiently granular analysis of bar passage. (For instance, most bars only report total pass rates, which include all takers, including repeaters and those from non-ABA accredited schools.) But we can start with a little anecdata until the full NCBEX data is released next spring.
These figures compare overall bar takers in July. Numbers are rounded to maintain consistency with NCBEX data.
Alabama, -6 points (July 2013: 71%; July 2014: 65%)
Florida, +1 point (July 2013: 71%; July 2014: 72%)
Idaho, -15 points (July 2013: 80%; July 2014: 65%)
Indiana, -8 points (July 2013: 76%; July 2014: 68%)
Iowa, -11 points (July 2013: 92%; July 2014: 81%)
New Mexico, +3 points (July 2013: 81%; July 2014: 84%)
North Carolina, -1 point (July 2013: 63%; July 2014: 62%)
Oklahoma, -3 points (July 2013: 82%; July 2014: 79%)
Oregon, -10 points (July 2013: 75%; July 2014: 65%)
Vermont, -6 points (July 2013: 72%; July 2014: 66%)
Washington, -8 points (July 2013: 85%; July 2014: 77%)
Of the ten states that have disclosed overall bar passage rates, seven have passage rates that dropped at least five points, and three have passage rates that dropped at least ten points.
Why?
Have state bars begun increasing the difficulty of their exams? That seems unlikely, because it's usually a big deal, and a public deal, for a state to adjust an exam. The fact that this is happening in several places also makes it unlikely.
Has student quality declined? The graduating class of 2014 was admitted in 2011, at a time of a very high applicant pool and some of the highest standards for most schools--while we might see a decline in passage rates in the next couple of years as schools sacrifice LSAT medians, GPA medians, and, perhaps most importantly, index scores (as I blogged about here), it doesn't explain why there's a drop for this graduating class. That said, the applications in 2011 were down slightly from the 2010 peak. (If anything, it may portend an even more dire situation as the student quality at institutions makes its way to graduation.)
Is it simply a brief anomaly from a few states? It might be. Looking at 2012 results (PDF), North Carolina had a 72% passage rate in July 2012; Washington had a 64% passage rate. So perhaps some significant oscillation in a few jurisdictions is not unprecedented.
At this stage, it's a small data point to keep an eye on as the bar results come in. Additionally, if bar passage rates decline overall, we might see another wave of consequences: fewer students passing state bars in July means lower employment outcomes for students in bar passage-required positions that must be reported the following February. Schools that slashed admissions standards three years ago might be seeing the consequences if higher numbers of their graduates fail the bar.
Update: Here are a few additional results. This will occasionally be updated. For a chart identifying a sharp decline in MBE scores, please see this post.
Alaska, -3 points (July 2013: 68%; July 2014: 65%)
Arizona, -8 points (July 2013: 68%; July 2014: 76%)
California, -7 points (July 2013: 56%; July 2014: 49%)
Colorado, -4 points (July 2013, 79%; July 2014: 75%)
Connecticut, +3 points (July 2013: 77%; July 2014, 77%)
Delaware, -9 points (July 2013: 72%; July 2014: 63%)
District of Columbia, -8 points (July 2013: 47%; July 2014: 39%)
Georgia, -6 points (July 2013: 80%; July 2014: 74%)
Kentucky, unchanged (July 2013: 76%; July 2014: 76%)
Louisiana, +17 points (July 2013: 53%; July 2014, 70%)*
Massachusetts, -6 points (July 2013: 82%; July 2014: 76%)
Michigan, +1 point (July 2013: 62%; July 2014: 63%)
Minnesota, -9 points (July 2013: 88%; July 2014: 79%)
Missouri, -4 points (July 2013: 89%; July 2014, 85%)
Nevada, -9 points (July 2013: 66%; July 2014: 57%)
New Jersey, -4 points (July 2013: 79%; July 2014: 75%)
New York, -4 points (July 2013: 69%; July 2014: 65%)
Ohio, -5 points (July 2013: 82%; July 2014: 77%)
Pennsylvania, -1 point (July 2013: 77%; July 2014: 76%)
South Carolina, -6 points (July 2013: 77%; July 2014: 71%)
Tennessee, -12 points (July 2013, 78%; July 2014, 66%)
Texas, -11 points (July 2013, 82%; July 2014, 71%)
Virginia, -7 points (July 2013: 75%; July 2014: 68%)
Running totals for change in passage rate (for 34 jurisdictions)
Drop of at least ten points: 5
Drop of five to nine points: 15
Essentially unchanged (drop of four points to increase of four points): 13
Increase of five or more points: 1*
*Louisiana is the only state that does not use the MBE.