Visualizing legal employment outcomes in New York in 2016

This is the second in a series of visualizations on legal employment outcomes for the Class of 2016. Following up on a post on outcomes in Texas, here is a visualization for legal employment outcomes of graduates of New York law schools for the Class of 2016. (More about the methodology is available at the Texas post.)

Total graduates among the New York law schools dropped from 4083 to 3811. (There were about 4500 in the Class of 2014.) That helped overall placement rise from 79.3% to 83.4% in full-time, long-term, bar passage-required and J.D.-advantage jobs. That's even despite the fact that Columbia cut its law school funded placements in such positions from 28 down to 12. Overall jobs declined slightly.

As always, please notify me of any corrections or errata.

Peer score School 2016 YoY% BPR JDA LSF 2015 BPR JDA LSF
4.5 New York University 97.9% 1.2 430 15 30 96.7% 424 14 31
4.6 Columbia University 96.7% -2.1 356 8 12 98.8% 360 10 28
4.2 Cornell University 92.4% -3.1 166 2 2 95.5% 164 3 3
2.2 St. John's University 84.0% 2.2 176 29 0 81.9% 173 29 1
1.9 Pace University 82.5% 6.9 123 18 0 75.5% 93 17 1
3.3 Fordham University 82.3% 6.2 286 29 1 76.1% 274 37 1
2.7 Cardozo School of Law 82.2% 5.5 251 26 1 76.8% 246 32 0
2.0 Albany Law School 82.1% 1.8 106 17 1 80.3% 119 25 3
2.3 Hofstra University 80.3% 6.5 145 13 1 73.8% 201 17 4
2.5 Brooklyn Law School 77.0% 3.8 244 40 0 73.2% 215 31 0
1.9 New York Law School 76.3% 8.7 162 69 1 67.6% 171 66 1
2.3 Syracuse University 74.1% 8.5 100 23 0 65.6% 104 20 0
1.5 Touro College 69.8% 9.4 87 10 0 60.4% 105 8 0
2.2 City University of New York 69.2% 5.3 69 3 0 64.0% 66 5 0
2.2 University of Buffalo-SUNY 67.6% -3.1 117 8 0 70.7% 115 20 0

Visualizing legal employment outcomes in Texas in 2016

Following up on a series of posts last year, this is the first in a series visualizing employment outcomes of law school graduates from the Class of 2016. The U.S. News & World Report ("USNWR") rankings recently released, which include data for the Class of 2015, are already obsolete. The ABA will release the information soon, but individualized employment reports are available on schools' websites.

The USNWR prints the "employed" rate as "the percentage of all graduates who had a full-time job lasting at least a year for which bar passage was required or a J.D. degree was an advantage." But it does not give "full weight" in its internal ranking metric to jobs that were funded by the law school. USNWR gives other positions lower weight, but these positions are not included in the ranking tables. And while it includes J.D. advantage positions, there remain disputes about whether those positions are actually as valuable. (Some have further critiqued solo practitioners being included in the bar passage required statistics.)

The top chart is sorted by non-school-funded jobs (or "full weight" positions). The visualization breaks out full-time, long-term, bar passage required positions (not funded by the school); full-time, long term, J.D.-advantage positions (not funded by the school); school funded positions (full-time, long-term, bar passage required or J.D.-advantage positions); and all other outcomes. I included a breakdown in the visualization slightly distinguishing bar passage required positions from J.D.-advantage positions, even though both are included in "full weight" for USNWR purposes (and I still sort the chart by "full weight" positions).

The table below the chart breaks down the raw data values for the Classes of 2015 and 2016, with relative overall changes year-over-year, and is sorted by total placement (as USNWR prints). The columns beside each year break out the three categories in the total placement: FTLT unfunded bar passage required ("BPR"), FTLT unfunded J.D. advantage ("JDA"), and FTLT law school funded BPR & JDA positions ("LSF").

The first state is Texas (last year's visualization here). Total jobs in these unfunded bar passage-required and J.D.-advantage positions improved, from 1445 in 2015 to 1551 in 2016, even as the total graduates actually increased slightly in the state. The overall employment rate was 74.1% (including a few funded positions), up from 70.5% last year. (More granular data is available at each school's website.) Some of the improvement may be attributable to improved bar passage rates last July.

As always, if I made a mistake, please feel free to email me or comment; I confess there are always risks in data translation, and I am happy to make corrections.

Peer Score School 2016 YoY% BPR JDA LSF 2015 BPR JDA LSF
4.1 University of Texas-Austin 85.6% 1.2 289 18 3 84.5% 268 20 11
2.6 Southern Methodist University 81.6% -2.1 176 15 0 83.7% 183 17 0
2.4 Baylor University 80.4% -7.6 122 4 1 88.0% 88 5 2
2.7 University of Houston 79.6% 1.4 162 29 0 78.2% 129 42 1
1.9 Texas Tech University 76.4% 2.9 125 14 0 73.5% 138 17 0
1.6 St. Mary's University 68.9% 7.3 144 18 2 61.6% 113 19 1
2.2 Texas A&M University 68.3% 0.5 121 19 0 67.8% 137 17 0
1.6 South Texas College of Law Houston 62.2% 8.0 175 31 0 54.2% 164 25 1
1.5 Texas Southern University 58.9% 16.0 79 10 0 42.9% 52 11 0

Law schools appear to be admitting more students with character and fitness issues

We've known for some time that law schools have increasingly admitted less qualified applicants as overall size and quality of the applicant pool has declined, which has been a major reason for the sharp decline in bar passage rates. From Keith Lee, we may be observing another issue on the admissions front: an increase in students with character and fitness issues.

Mr. Lee draws his information from a North Carolina report (PDF). A commission on legal professionalism reported that character and fitness issues rose significantly between 2012 and 2015: those with a driving while intoxicated ("DWI") or driving under the influence ("DUI") incident rose from 23% of applicants in 2012 to a whopping 43% of applicants in 2015. Those with multiple DWIs/DUIs rose from 5% to 18%. (These details are only exacerbated by the fact that nondisclosure of character and fitness issues rose from 30% to 52% in that period.)

It's one thing if law schools, unable or unwilling to reduce class size to meet the shrinking size and quality of the applicant pool, increasingly admit students at risk of failing the bar. But it's another thing if they have been increasingly admitting students with character and fitness issues, too. To date, the American Bar Association, which is tasked with ensuring that law schools maintain a program sufficiently geared toward students who can pass the bar, has not had little to say about individual schools' decisions regarding quality of students. And as far as I know, it has not said anything about character issues. Perhaps other states are experiencing similar problems and have not yet disclosed such data. But it's yet another complication for law school admissions committees in the future.

The percentage of law school enrollees receiving scholarships continues to climb

Last week, I blogged about the fact that most law schools have become "more affordable" in the last three years, at least as measured by indebtedness at graduation. There are many possible explanations for the reduction in debt, and they may well be measured in non-"affordability" terms, such as increasing numbers of independently wealthy students self-funding their education. But I suggested changes to law school scholarships may be driving some of the affordability, and there's strong evidence that's the case.

While law schools have been raising their tuition, often quicker than inflation (with some notable exceptions I mentioned in last week's piece), they may well be increasing scholarship awards at an even faster pace. Some of the macro-level details of the scholarship award picture remain murky, but from law school disclosures offered by the American Bar Association, we can get some idea about the overall scholarship or grant picture.

Law schools are required to disclose the total scholarship picture of its students annually. That means changes to scholarship awards in the incoming first-year class are just one part of the total law school portrait. But there's a strong suggestion in these figures that each incoming class is receiving significantly more than the previous class.

The figures below include all schools from reporting years 2012 to 2016, which reference academic years 2011 to 2015. Schools that lacked data for a period in here (including schools that merged or divided) were excluded.

Despite the significant decline in enrollment in law schools in the last several years, the raw number of students receiving grants has actually increased. Total law school enrollment declined from 141,217 among these schools to 109,412, largely the result of much smaller incoming classes succeeding much larger graduating classes. Despite this, the total students receiving grants actually increased, from 70,403 to 73,323. And the total coming in with no grants plummeted, from 70,815 to 36,089 in this five-year stretch.

Those raw numbers translate into notable percentages. The number of law school enrollees receiving an academic scholarship has increased fairly significantly in just a few years, from just under 50% to about two-thirds of all law students.

(I had thought one possible reason would be a decline in conditional scholarships, or grants that are contingent on a law student performing at a certain academic level in the first year in order to secure the award in the second and third years. This has declined slightly but not meaningfully in the last few years, hardly worth mentioning.)

The awards appear to be increasing, too. The percentage of law school enrollees receiving at least half tuition have increased from 16% of enrollees to over 27% of enrollees. (Recall that this probably understates what's happening in each new incoming class, as these scholarship figures are the total picture as opposed to just the incoming class statistics. It might be the case that schools have been increasing tuition and subsequently increasing scholarship amounts as well, but that's something best left for more extensive analysis later.)

Indeed, while students receiving less than half tuition scholarships continue to be the bulk of scholarship recipients, students with half to full tuition scholarships remain the fastest-growing group. (Even full tuition and more than full tuition awards increased over this time: more than 2% of law students are now enrolled on more than full tuition scholarships.)

While there are undoubtedly many factors contributing to the decline in law school debt (and law school affordability), the increase in scholarships appears to be a major source of this change.

Most law schools have become more affordable in the last three years

It seems like a crazy headline, but it turns out that the decline in supply of prospective law students has yielded the expected decline in cost at most law schools over the last three years.

A few years ago, I noted that 30 law schools had become more affordable over a three-year period. I thought I'd see what might have changed since then.

And before sharing the numbers, It's worth cautioning that these numbers have extremely limited value. The U.S. News & World Report ("USNWR") debt rankings include a number of very obvious faults, including a number of schools reporting more than 100% of graduates who obtained debt:

The embarrassing data collection of USNWR calls into question not just these figures but the totality of the rankings. But let's stick with what we've got for the moment.

I removed all schools that failed to disclose debt figures in either the 2015 rankings or the 2018 rankings. I removed the schools that had reported more than 100% of graduates who took on debt. I also removed the three schools in Puerto Rico. That brought the data set down to 163 schools.

Many schools are unable to read the USNWR forms correctly and only report some of the debt one year and the cumulative debt another year; I don't attempt to determine which schools made that error, but the schools with triple-digit percentage increases in debt loads over three years would probably fall into that category.

I calculated 3.0% inflation between 2013 (the class whose debt load is included in the 2015 rankings) and 2016 (the class whose debt load is included in the 2018 rankings) and adjusted the 2013 figures accordingly. The debt figures listed on the site are an average for those who incurred debt; to arrive at a more accurate picture of the debt load of the class as a whole, I then factored in the percentage of students who graduated without any debt to reach an overall average.

Among the 163 schools, 115 saw a decline in overall debt loads; just 48 saw an inflation-adjusted increase.

Many possible reasons for the changes are possible. As I explained in 2013, students may graduate without debt for many reasons: "That could be because they are independently wealthy or come from a wealthy family willing to finance the education; they could have substantial scholarship assistance; they could earn income during school or during the summers; they could live in a low cost-of-living area, or live frugally; or some combination of these and other factors. It's worth noting that several thousand students graduate each year without any debt."

Scholarship awards may be outpacing tuition hikes. Students are no longer purchasing health care due to the ability to remain on their parents' health insurance under federal law, a significant cost for students a few years ago. Schools have increasingly eased, or abolished, stipulations on scholarships, which means students graduate with less debt. Some schools have slashed tuition prices. We might simply be experiencing the decline of economically poorer law students, resulting in more students who need smaller student loans--or none at all. Students may be taking advantage of accelerated programs that allow them to graduate faster with less debt. Finally, as JD class sizes shrink, it's increasingly apparent that students who would have paid the "sticker" price as increasingly pursuing options at institutions that offer them tuition discounts. (I'll have something more about financial aid figures in the near future.)

Additionally, as I've noted before, the "percentage may be somewhat deceptive, because at a very low-cost school, a modest increase in debt load may appear, on a percentage basis, much higher than comparable increase at a high-cost school.  A $10,000 increase in debt at a school that previously had just $20,000 in debt looks like 50%; at a school with $100,000 in debt, just 10%. But I thought percentage would still be the most useful."

And of course, these debt figures are only an average; they do not include undergraduate debt, credit card debt, or interest accrued on law school loans while in school. And, as I've written, "The averages are not precise, either, for individuals. The average may be artificially high if a few students took out extremely high debt loads that distorted the average, or artificially low if a few students took out nominal debt loads that distorted the average."

It's worth noting that some of these changes are hardly random. Major announcements from institutions like Iowa, Arizona, and Chicago back in 2013 signaled major changes in tuition or scholarship structures.

Finally--and while it should go without saying, I fear I need to say it anyway--this is hardly a statement about whether any particular law school is a "good" value or whether the debt loads are appropriate. It's simply a relative comparison of debt loads over three years.

Inflation-Adjusted Average Law School Debt Incurred by All Law Students Between 2013 & 2016
School 2013 2016 Dollar diff Pct diff
University of Iowa $87,669 $51,890 -$35,780 -40.8%
University of Chicago $134,795 $83,609 -$51,186 -38.0%
Washington University in St. Louis $84,863 $54,352 -$30,511 -36.0%
University of New Hampshire School of Law $115,056 $74,969 -$40,087 -34.8%
Seton Hall University $109,285 $71,692 -$37,592 -34.4%
North Carolina Central University $81,333 $55,012 -$26,321 -32.4%
University of Arizona (Rogers) $76,545 $52,534 -$24,010 -31.4%
University of Kentucky $59,654 $41,857 -$17,797 -29.8%
George Mason University $104,601 $74,427 -$30,175 -28.8%
University of San Diego $115,809 $85,818 -$29,991 -25.9%
University of St. Thomas $99,886 $74,177 -$25,709 -25.7%
University of Massachusetts--Dartmouth $110,454 $82,275 -$28,179 -25.5%
The Catholic University of America $128,016 $96,071 -$31,945 -25.0%
Northeastern University $115,860 $87,079 -$28,781 -24.8%
Liberty University $74,403 $56,029 -$18,373 -24.7%
University of Idaho $78,515 $59,140 -$19,375 -24.7%
Villanova University $93,686 $70,818 -$22,867 -24.4%
Wake Forest University $104,101 $79,389 -$24,712 -23.7%
Indiana University--Bloomington (Maurer) $96,491 $73,744 -$22,747 -23.6%
University of Nebraska--Lincoln $59,015 $45,301 -$13,714 -23.2%
Ohio State University (Moritz) $87,593 $67,697 -$19,895 -22.7%
Florida Coastal School of Law $141,667 $111,048 -$30,619 -21.6%
Boston University $88,279 $69,681 -$18,598 -21.1%
University of Nevada--Las Vegas $90,288 $71,342 -$18,946 -21.0%
University of North Dakota $57,763 $45,785 -$11,978 -20.7%
University of Southern California (Gould) $121,836 $97,114 -$24,722 -20.3%
University of Toledo $90,339 $72,023 -$18,316 -20.3%
University of Minnesota--Twin Cities $91,079 $73,256 -$17,824 -19.6%
University of California--Irvine $96,855 $78,284 -$18,571 -19.2%
Syracuse University $116,006 $93,843 -$22,163 -19.1%
Georgia State University $60,752 $49,160 -$11,592 -19.1%
Samford University (Cumberland) $125,495 $101,585 -$23,910 -19.1%
Northwestern University $124,857 $101,200 -$23,658 -18.9%
Case Western Reserve University $90,292 $73,417 -$16,875 -18.7%
Charleston School of Law $134,372 $109,876 -$24,496 -18.2%
University of Detroit Mercy $103,572 $85,370 -$18,202 -17.6%
University of Wisconsin--Madison $67,065 $55,337 -$11,729 -17.5%
Washington and Lee University $102,537 $85,021 -$17,516 -17.1%
Temple University (Beasley) $78,069 $64,988 -$13,082 -16.8%
Brigham Young University (Clark) $48,309 $40,246 -$8,063 -16.7%
American University (Washington) $143,815 $119,881 -$23,933 -16.6%
University of Connecticut $59,395 $49,618 -$9,777 -16.5%
Fordham University $106,142 $88,759 -$17,383 -16.4%
University of Colorado--Boulder $91,541 $76,597 -$14,944 -16.3%
Stetson University $122,032 $102,875 -$19,157 -15.7%
Emory University $104,926 $88,590 -$16,336 -15.6%
University of Miami $120,596 $102,344 -$18,252 -15.1%
Wayne State University $71,209 $60,524 -$10,686 -15.0%
Drexel University (Kline) $95,292 $81,319 -$13,974 -14.7%
Gonzaga University $101,819 $87,166 -$14,654 -14.4%
University of Missouri $74,941 $64,384 -$10,557 -14.1%
University of Florida (Levin) $67,802 $58,732 -$9,071 -13.4%
University of Maine $80,478 $69,864 -$10,614 -13.2%
University of Houston $72,802 $63,210 -$9,592 -13.2%
Oklahoma City University $95,186 $82,802 -$12,384 -13.0%
Yeshiva University (Cardozo) $87,532 $76,248 -$11,284 -12.9%
Creighton University $120,432 $104,923 -$15,509 -12.9%
University of California--Berkeley $119,993 $104,570 -$15,424 -12.9%
New York University $121,522 $106,810 -$14,713 -12.1%
University of California--Los Angeles $99,152 $87,221 -$11,931 -12.0%
University of Richmond $99,634 $87,658 -$11,976 -12.0%
Albany Law School $94,539 $83,760 -$10,779 -11.4%
University of Dayton $104,519 $92,813 -$11,706 -11.2%
Washburn University $70,625 $62,777 -$7,849 -11.1%
University of Pittsburgh $94,198 $83,786 -$10,412 -11.1%
Boston College $84,593 $75,300 -$9,293 -11.0%
Loyola Marymount University $120,118 $106,990 -$13,128 -10.9%
Illinois Institute of Technology (Chicago-Kent) $93,842 $83,658 -$10,184 -10.9%
Western State College of Law at Argosy University $106,909 $95,768 -$11,141 -10.4%
California Western School of Law $145,771 $131,115 -$14,656 -10.1%
New York Law School $142,206 $128,024 -$14,182 -10.0%
Yale University $92,597 $83,410 -$9,186 -9.9%
George Washington University $96,784 $87,667 -$9,117 -9.4%
University of Baltimore $97,943 $88,914 -$9,029 -9.2%
University of California--Davis $80,310 $72,969 -$7,341 -9.1%
DePaul University $115,365 $104,923 -$10,441 -9.1%
University of Mississippi $55,440 $50,512 -$4,928 -8.9%
St. Louis University $106,066 $96,677 -$9,388 -8.9%
CUNY $66,173 $60,402 -$5,770 -8.7%
University of North Carolina--Chapel Hill $77,793 $71,316 -$6,476 -8.3%
Roger Williams University $118,650 $109,387 -$9,263 -7.8%
Brooklyn Law School $85,974 $79,447 -$6,528 -7.6%
Chapman University (Fowler) $117,418 $108,764 -$8,654 -7.4%
Columbia University $109,443 $101,447 -$7,996 -7.3%
Florida International University $88,654 $82,185 -$6,469 -7.3%
University of Virginia $112,565 $104,392 -$8,173 -7.3%
St. John's University $96,421 $89,625 -$6,796 -7.0%
Regent University $113,814 $105,870 -$7,944 -7.0%
Florida State University $73,251 $68,255 -$4,996 -6.8%
Ohio Northern University (Pettit) $99,625 $93,010 -$6,615 -6.6%
Ave Maria School of Law $114,724 $107,426 -$7,298 -6.4%
Arizona State University (O'Connor) $83,282 $78,224 -$5,058 -6.1%
Michigan State University $75,946 $71,335 -$4,610 -6.1%
University of Memphis (Humphreys) $61,945 $58,518 -$3,428 -5.5%
University of the Pacific (McGeorge) $134,118 $126,767 -$7,351 -5.5%
Louisiana State University--Baton Rouge (Hebert) $67,490 $63,872 -$3,619 -5.4%
Tulane University $104,968 $99,548 -$5,420 -5.2%
University of Montana $70,292 $66,762 -$3,530 -5.0%
University of Illinois--Urbana-Champaign $75,125 $71,530 -$3,594 -4.8%
Quinnipiac University $90,272 $86,699 -$3,573 -4.0%
Thomas Jefferson School of Law $171,394 $165,039 -$6,356 -3.7%
University of Missouri--Kansas City $88,788 $85,705 -$3,082 -3.5%
University of Akron $73,126 $70,601 -$2,525 -3.5%
Vanderbilt University $84,664 $81,922 -$2,742 -3.2%
Texas A&M University $96,410 $93,556 -$2,854 -3.0%
Suffolk University $103,229 $100,223 -$3,006 -2.9%
Mississippi College $99,442 $97,285 -$2,157 -2.2%
Seattle University $119,276 $116,749 -$2,527 -2.1%
Pepperdine University $120,639 $118,630 -$2,009 -1.7%
University of Georgia $65,799 $65,178 -$621 -0.9%
Mercer University (George) $115,767 $114,800 -$967 -0.8%
Golden Gate University $142,731 $141,583 -$1,149 -0.8%
Hofstra University (Deane) $110,562 $109,929 -$633 -0.6%
Lewis & Clark College (Northwestern) $108,995 $108,596 -$399 -0.4%
University of Utah (Quinney) $76,501 $76,404 -$97 -0.1%
University of Maryland (Carey) $83,258 $83,439 $182 0.2%
University of San Francisco $134,845 $136,532 $1,687 1.3%
Drake University $97,706 $99,304 $1,598 1.6%
Georgetown University $120,788 $123,165 $2,376 2.0%
Southern Methodist University (Dedman) $83,491 $85,193 $1,702 2.0%
University of Texas--Austin $67,567 $69,040 $1,473 2.2%
University of South Carolina $70,531 $72,251 $1,721 2.4%
University of Alabama $50,428 $51,765 $1,337 2.7%
University of South Dakota $52,915 $54,473 $1,558 2.9%
University of Kansas $65,458 $67,625 $2,167 3.3%
University of Oklahoma $60,954 $63,012 $2,058 3.4%
University of Louisville (Brandeis) $76,274 $79,341 $3,067 4.0%
West Virginia University $61,954 $64,551 $2,597 4.2%
Northern Illinois University $70,109 $73,074 $2,965 4.2%
University of Washington $82,201 $86,673 $4,472 5.4%
University of California (Hastings) $107,817 $113,918 $6,101 5.7%
University of Cincinnati $60,144 $63,782 $3,638 6.0%
Southern University Law Center $79,135 $84,049 $4,914 6.2%
St. Mary's University $102,398 $108,783 $6,385 6.2%
Valparaiso University $120,524 $129,422 $8,898 7.4%
Duquesne University $85,985 $92,676 $6,692 7.8%
University of Arkansas--Fayetteville $50,464 $54,728 $4,264 8.4%
Whittier College $146,796 $159,920 $13,124 8.9%
Willamette University (Collins) $113,222 $123,472 $10,250 9.1%
Texas Tech University $61,998 $67,766 $5,768 9.3%
Indiana University--Indianapolis (McKinney) $87,785 $96,023 $8,238 9.4%
Stanford University $93,803 $103,031 $9,228 9.8%
University of Michigan--Ann Arbor $95,992 $106,163 $10,171 10.6%
University of Pennsylvania $100,435 $111,165 $10,730 10.7%
Nova Southeastern University (Broad) $115,989 $128,617 $12,628 10.9%
Marquette University $110,158 $122,443 $12,285 11.2%
University of Denver (Sturm) $109,551 $121,955 $12,403 11.3%
University of Notre Dame $82,649 $93,122 $10,473 12.7%
University of Wyoming $63,254 $72,723 $9,470 15.0%
University of Tennessee--Knoxville $55,743 $64,661 $8,918 16.0%
Harvard University $100,937 $117,568 $16,632 16.5%
Pace University $84,579 $100,326 $15,747 18.6%
University of Arkansas--Little Rock (Bowen) $42,867 $52,131 $9,265 21.6%
SUNY Buffalo Law School $60,841 $74,481 $13,640 22.4%
University of Tulsa $72,600 $89,046 $16,447 22.7%
University of New Mexico $53,638 $66,617 $12,979 24.2%
Southern Illinois University--Carbondale $57,523 $73,403 $15,879 27.6%
Duke University $77,184 $98,715 $21,531 27.9%
Elon University $99,653 $134,811 $35,157 35.3%
Baylor University $77,304 $106,693 $29,389 38.0%
The John Marshall Law School $91,830 $132,586 $40,755 44.4%
University of the District of Columbia (Clarke) $33,454 $90,116 $56,662 169.4%
Barry University $43,354 $141,667 $98,312 226.8%

Do law professors generally think most other law schools are pretty awful?

The U.S. News & World Report ("USNWR") law school rankings include a number of illuminating bits of information and some weaknesses, as I displayed yesterday. But a cursory look at Paul Caron's display of the peer reputation scores displays, perhaps, a startling truth: law professors generally think most other law schools are pretty awful. (I qualify that with "other" because I think most law professors generally think their own schools are probably pretty good.)

Law professors at each school--about 800 in total--are given the peer reputation survey. This is a paper ballot mailed to a number of faculty. Those surveyed include the dean, the academic dean, the faculty appointments chair, and the most recently tenured faculty member. The response rate tends to be fairly high, and understandably so--this survey accounts for 25% of the total USNWR ranking.

The survey asks faculty to rate schools on a scale of 5 (outstanding) to 1 (marginal). At times, other clarifications for these numbers are offered, a 3 being "good," or a 2 being "adequate." (And "adequate" is widely regarded as a fairly poor and back-handed remark.)

One might expect to see a fairly ordinary distribution between 5 and 1, perhaps a bell curve with a bulk of schools in the range of 3 in the middle. But it turns out law professors think little of other schools.

Just 47 schools exceed the middling score of 3.0. Nearly 80 schools score a 2.0 or below. The median score is a dismal 2.3. And over the years, law professors' peer scores have slightly declined on the whole--meaning they think schools are getting worse.

The visualization of the distribution rather vividly displays this point.

Now, perhaps my asking-a-question-as-a-headline is all clickbait [ed.: on my ad-free blog!], and I'm burying the lede--that is, the alternative factors contributing to these results. (But, it remains quite possible that law professors actually do believe that most schools are quite poor.)

First, the USNWR survey itself may be flawed. It may be gamed (see below), but also because the survey asks fairly generic overall question about the school's quality and offers fairly generic categories for ranking. It's hard to know whether professors are judging schools based on scholarly output, graduate outcomes, or, perhaps, simply echoing last year's USNWR rankings.

Second, law professors may be gaming the rankings. They very well know that giving a 5 to a school increases that school's score--and increases that school's chance that it surpass one's home institution in the rankings. That creates a pressure for ratings deflation. Further, a large number of 4s can be offset by a much smaller number of 1s.

Third, law professors may be expressing their ignorance of schools. If they're not aware of a school's quality, or if they are only marginally aware, they may simply default to a "1" and drive down a school's ranking. Even though the survey expressly permits professors to refuse to rank a school if they lack sufficient information, the temptation to rate a school (particularly for gaming purposes) may simply be too great.

Furthermore, these concerns may be overblown anyway! Even if the peer ratings are artificially low, they still highly correlate with ranked choice preferences of law school surveys conducted by Brian Leiter.

It's probably best, then, to conclude that the peer reputation scores are to be taken, to borrow a phrase, seriously but not literally. They're best understood as relative preferences of schools, not absolute ratings of school quality.

Taken that way, it demonstrates that the opinion of most law professors is that most law schools are clumped together. 27 schools have a score between 3.1 and 3.5, followed by an obvious gap of just 5 schools with a score between 2.8 and 3.0. 59 schools have a peer reputation score between 2.2 and 2.7; in an overlapping set, 63 schools have a peer reputation score between 1.9 and 2.4.

Perhaps there's a better way for USNWR to conduct the survey, or to report the results, to alleviate some of the problems. (Not that it would change its methodology if such an alternative were available--e.g., a digital ballot with ranked-choice voting.) But without that, it's worth thinking about how to best construe these survey results. And it's probably best not to think of the survey in absolute terms, but in relative terms--a few elite schools, a handful of good schools, and significant clumps of other schools.

Visualizing the 2018 U.S. News law school rankings--the way they should be presented

The U.S. News & World Report ("USNWR") rankings have been released. Like most, I've long been a critic of much that USNWR does, from how it distorts law school admissions practices, to its deeply delayed reporting of relevant data. I've also critiqued how USNWR chooses to display information in its rankings, often displaying information it doesn't use in its ranking or failing to display (or even share) relevant data.

The ordinal ranking at the heart of the USNWR rankings is perhaps its greatest deceptions. It crunches its formula and spits out a score. That score is normalized to give the top-scoring school (Yale) a score of 100, and it scales the rest of the scores off that.

But the magazine then chooses to display rank order of each school--even if there are significant gaps between the scores. To highlight one such example this year, Berkeley has a score of 82, Cornell has a score of 81, and Texas has a score of 75--suggesting that Berkeley and Cornell are quite close, and Texas is somewhat farther behind those two (even if in overall elite company!). But the magazine displays this as Berkeley 12, Cornell 13, Texas 14--distorting the narrow gap between Berkeley and Cornell, and the much wider gap between Cornell and Texas. And even though the magazine displays the overall score, the ordinal ranking drowns out these scores. Indeed, as the rankings are ordinal, there is no space from one school to the next, suggesting that they are placed along an equal line.

This plays out elsewhere in the rankings, as law students agonize over small differences in ordinal ranking that belie fairly distinct clumpings of schools that suggest little difference--indeed, in many cases, differences likely only the result of rounding the raw score up or down to the next whole number.

Assuming one takes the USNWR formula seriously--which it doesn't even appear USNWR does, given its choice to rank--a better way would be to visualize the relative performance of each school based on the score, not assigning each school an ordinal rank. That provides better context about the relative position of schools to one another. And that can help illustrate sharp differences in the overall score, or groupings that illustrate a high degree of similarity between a number of schools.

Below is my attempt to visualize the rankings in that fashion. (Please note that this may look best on a desktop browser due to the size of the chart.)


Score USNWR 2018 Rankings, Visualized by Overall Score
100 Yale
99  
98 Stanford
97  
96 Harvard
95  
94 Chicago
93 Columbia
92  
91  
90 NYU
89  
88 Penn
87  
86  
85 Michigan | Virginia
84 Duke | Northwestern
83  
82 Berkeley
81 Cornell
80  
79  
78  
77  
76  
75 Texas
74 Georgetown | UCLA
73 Vanderbilt
72 Washington University
71  
70 USC
69  
68  
67 Iowa | Notre Dame
66 Emory
65 Boston University | Minnesota
64 Arizona State
63 Alabama | Boston College
62 Irvine | Washington & Lee
61 George Washington | Georgia | Indiana-Bloomington | Ohio State | Washington | Wisconsin
60 Colorado | Fordham | Wake Forest
59  
58 Davis | North Carolina
57 Florida | George Mason | William & Mary
56 Illinois | Utah
55 BYU | Southern Methodist
54 Arizona | Florida State | Maryland
53 Baylor | Tulane
52 Temple
51  
50 Connecticut | Hastings | Houston
49 Kentucky | Nebraska | Richmond | Seton Hall | Tennessee
48 Case Western | Rutgers | UNLV
47 Cardozo | Georgia State | Kansas | Loyola LA | Missouri | Northeastern | Penn State Dickinson
46 Cincinnati | Oklahoma | Pepperdine | St. John's
45 Denver
44 Arkansas | Miami | New Mexico | San Diego | Villanova
43 Loyola Chicago | Penn State University Park | Pittsburgh | Tulsa
42 American | Oregon
41 Brooklyn | Indiana-Indianapolis | South Carolina | St. Louis
40 Chicago-Kent | Louisville | Syracuse | Texas A&M
39 Louisiana State | Michigan State | Stetson | West Virginia
38 Florida International | Hawaii | Lewis & Clark | Marquette | New Hampshire | Wayne State
37 Catholic | Drake | SUNY-Buffalo
36 Albany | Idaho | Mississippi
35 Baltimore | Drexel | Gonzaga | New York Law School | UMKC | Wyoming
34 Hofstra | Texas Tech
33 Creighton | DePaul | Howard | Montana | Pace | Seattle | St. Thomas (Minnesota)
32 Cleveland State | CUNY | Duquesne | Quinnipiac | Washburn
31 Santa Clara | Toledo
30  
29 Akron | Arkansas-Little Rock | Chapman | Mercer | Vermont
28 Maine
27 Memphis | Suffolk
26 Loyola New Orleans | McGeorge | North Dakota | South Dakota | Willamette
25 Samford
24 Northern Illinois | Widener

Should legal education adjust its commitments during the Trump administration?

My glib reaction after reading this tweet from Northwestern Dean Dan Rodriguez, quoting Harvard Dean Martha Minnow, was, "I confess that I find reconsideration of a law school's commitments because of a presidential election to be a bit shortsighted." I thought I'd expand on my concerns about law schools adjusting their commitments based on the outcome of a presidential election.

It’s worthwhile to determine, ex ante, what law school commitments ought to look like. There are any number of responses to this. Law schools ought to be training lawyers how to engage in the critical thinking, problem solving, and writing necessary for success in the legal profession. Law schools ought to be transmitting some basic knowledge of the law to students, helping them understand why the law is what is and how it got there. Law schools ought to be equipping students for post-graduate activities, including meaningful career opportunities and professional development. Law schools ought to be engaging in academic scholarship to further knowledge and understanding about the law. (A good vision for a law school would then provide some fairly specific details on these or other commitments.)

There are things that law schools ought to also be doing to maximize some of these commitments (and perhaps they’re simply good things for law schools to be doing, anyway). For instance, keeping tuition affordable and debt loads low can increase opportunities for students to pursue meaningful career opportunities. So, too, can providing assistance for at-risk students who might not graduate or be able to pass the bar exam. Different modes of education, from externships to mid-semester assessment opportunities, might increase opportunities to understand the law more deeply.

Here we open with a couple of fairly basic items. First, law schools should identify what the commitments are; second, law schools should identify what means law schools can implement to best achieve the goals articulated in those commitments. Hardly remarkable stuff.

Understandably, the legal profession changes, and culture changes. As these changes arise, so, too, should those commitments be reexamined and, if appropriate, altered.

But there are other places where changes to the legal profession or the culture might not particularly call upon law schools to do terribly much to these ex ante commitments. The most common place to respond to those changes is not in the commitments of the law schools themselves, but within the academic events that are occurring within the classroom. It might be the case that, in the exercise of legitimate academic freedom, law professors may choose to emphasize certain elements of courses or add new courses on content they believe to be particularly relevant. Or it might be the case that law professors choose to emphasize particular areas of scholarly activity in response to current events. This happens all the time.

Sometimes it is direct response to current events, such as courses on executive war power or habeas corpus that bloomed between 2002 and 2008. At other times it is in response to a changing legal profession, such as courses concerning ethical lawyering and social media, e-discovery, or the law of autonomous vehicles. Some arise from perceived or actual needs for students, such as increased offerings or requirements of statutory interpretation or administrative law. And, I imagine, law professors’ course content coverage ebbs and flows with trends in case law, such as some recent bursts (and perhaps fizzles) in constitutional law on the Commerce Clause, the Takings Clause, the Second Amendment, and impeachment.

And, of course, there will likely be more “politicized” reactions by some law professors in some courses. Some of these reactions might be the typical kinds of reactions that would occur had any Republican won the presidency, and others might be the kinds of reactions particular to the election of Donald Trump. The reactions might be based in rather concrete promises he made, such as border security; others might respond to specific acts, such as an executive order; while still others might verge on the more abstract, even hyperbolic, projections of his presidency. (I confess I am not a great fan of this last strain of changes, regardless of the political environment, because it strikes me as somewhat near-sighted and reactionary.)

But what might it look like for a law school to reexamine its commitments in light of a presidential election? This is a much weightier prospect than the prospect of a few professors tweaking a few elements of their courses or their research in light of changed circumstances. Instead, it suggests that something fundamental has occurred in the world that compels law schools to change what they are doing.

Such events have occurred. Consider the fallout from Watergate, as law schools (or, perhaps, the accrediting arm of the American Bar Association) concluded that schools were insufficiently equipping students to handle the ethical dilemmas facing attorneys. Law schools introduced new commitments to that end throughout the law school curriculum. That was a response not to Watergate generally, but to the fact that lawyers in particular were involved in Watergate. The nexus between the practice of law and the training of future law students was fairly evident. While law schools and the legal profession had some understanding of ethics prior to Watergate, they sharpened their ethics codes and increased teaching surrounding those codes.

But the election of a new president is a political issue. It may result in particular legal issues that arise from a new administration. Even then, however, [ed.: in prophetic words sure to go wrong] it is unlikely that the legal issues will drive the legal profession to a crisis along the lines of Watergate. So any response from a law school is not to the specific needs of the legal profession, or even to legal issues generally, but truly to a political issue. And that is true even if one characterized the election of Mr. Trump has some extraordinary political event and not “politics as usual.”

Still, one might push back against my conclusion and say that changes to the political environment do require some law schools to take certain steps in response, and law schools might look at the election of Mr. Trump and choose to change. I worry, however, that such efforts, even if styled in neutral terms, fairly quickly illustrate that these newly-valued short-term goals do not address the major ex ante commitments that have been identified by schools in a more thorough and comprehensive consideration of commitments; and that such efforts may also provide rather clumsy efforts toward such short-term ends.

If a law school, for instance, articulates its need to shift commitments to teaching about the “rule of law,” however capacious that phrase might be understood today, does that mean law schools were not committed to teaching students about the “rule of law” before? That they were insufficiently committed? That there was little need for a serious commitment to teaching about the “rule of law” under the presidency of Barack Obama or George W. Bush?

Or consider changes to curriculum--if there are ideological commitments made in a new curriculum in reaction to decisions in the Trump Administration, would this diminish the ideological diversity that should be pursued in legal education? Might it drive the remainder of the legal education curriculum toward a singular ideological commitment historically typified in clinical education?

Now, it might be the case that such expressions of new commitments would attract 20-year-old humanities majors in college who are considering whether or not to take the Law School Admissions Test. But that, I think, is a fairly thin reason for pursuing such a recentering of a law school's commitments.

But, still, it may be that some would press back on the notion of law school as a fairly non-ideological endeavor. If law schools are merely tools of social change, an instrument of administrators, this analysis would surely look quite different. There may be a notion that law schools are a kind of catapult. Their students are some sort of ammunition, and law schools are pointing these students at targets in society and hurtling them at great speed toward them in an effect to smash those walls of, err, injustice (to belabor the metaphor).

This yields a great question about the purpose of legal education, which is a return to the questions outlined at the beginning of these thoughts. Are law schools about those things I listed at the outset of this essay, with fairly generic and neutral commitments that are often concerned with student outcomes and the increase of legal knowledge? Are they fundamentally about equipping students to do whatever such students want to do upon graduation, and about a broad commitment to the pursuit of knowledge in academic scholarship? Or are they instruments of social change in a particular fashion?

Granted, some students might choose to attend a particular law school because it is a kind of a catapult—the law school has had tremendous success in placing its graduates in Vault 100 law firms or the ACLU or judicial clerkships or investment banking or the Department of Justice. But a decision to reorient a law school's commitments toward a particular ideological commitment are, I think, something else--and something quite significant.

In the end, I expect that at least some law schools will change their commitments in light of the Trump administration. I also expect most of them will be fairly short-sighted and rather narrow in their responses. But I offer these thoughts as a more comprehensive way of thinking through law school commitments more generally. I think law schools too rarely consider the vision of their institutions and develop a purposeful plan toward achieving that vision. The fact that some schools are openly considering what their commitments ought to be is something of value--and it may result in serious reflection of commitments, and changes to commitments, unrelated to the present administration that may have prompted such reflection. What these discussions yield, of course, remains to be seen.

As 1L class sizes stabilize, one in nine law school enrollees are not a part of a JD program

The ABA Standard 509 data has been released for 2016. It includes data about the size of incoming law school classes.

Incoming 1L class sizes have stabilized over the last few years, hovering just over 37,000 new 1Ls.

As a result, the overall enrollment in in JD programs is starting to stabilize--not entirely, as the larger incoming classes work their way through the system and are replaced with smaller incoming classes. But total JD enrollment is now at a 42-year low, at 110,951. In 1974-1975, it was at 105,708.

In contrast, non-JD legal enrollment continues to grow steadily. It's up to 13,677 total enrolled in non-JD programs, up about 600 from 13,086 last year.

As a percentage of total enrollment, however, it continues to climb. Non-JD enrollment is no 11% of a law school's total enrollment, or just about 1 in 9 students enrolled in a law school is a part of a non-JD program. (It was about 1 in 10 last year.)

Note: non-JD enrollment was not disclosed for 2014-2015. Some charts begin at a non-zero Y-axis to display relative changes over time.