No, the Electoral College will not give the presidency to Donald Trump

On November 13, 2016, I wrote a post entitled, “No, the Electoral College will not give the presidency to Hillary Clinton.” Supporters of Mrs. Clinton, heartbroken at her loss and in denial that Donald Trump could be the next president, plotted an ultimately-unsuccessful attempt for “faithless” electors to cast their votes for someone other than Mr. Trump.

I might as well update the post four years later with the same thing, because it feels like déjà vu, with some updates to what I wrote.

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There is a nascent but rapidly growing effort from supporters of Mr. Trump to persuade presidential electors who would otherwise support Joe Biden to cast votes for Mr. Trump instead when the Electoral College meets December 14. Absent an extraordinary change of circumstances, it simply won't happen. Mr. Biden will win a majority of electoral votes on December 14 and ultimately become the 46th president of the United States.

It's worth noting that a lot of options to affect the presidential outcome have long since passed--usually, waiting until after the election is not a good idea to affect an election.

State legislatures could choose their own electors instead of leaving the matter to a popular vote; but after those states chose to a popular vote November 3, that strategy is not an option.

Parties could also select electors inclined to support their preferred candidate even if not formally the party’s nominee. The electors, however, have already been selected. (Indeed, parties have become more cautious about how they choose presidential electors, as I anticipated would happen in 2016. That further reduces the likelihood of any “faithless” electors.)

Instead, the only strategy for Mr. Trump’s supporters (as legal challenges and recount opportunities look increasingly unlikely to alter the results) is to turn to the Electoral College itself and persuade electors to be "faithless"--that is, persuade them to vote not for Mr. Biden, to whom they pledged (formally or informally) their support, but Mr. Trump.

First, it's worth noting that these are loyal Democrats who were selected as Biden electors. Many of them are loyal Biden supporters on top of that. The list of viable options, then, is limited to those who oppose Mr. Biden--and not just oppose him, but affirmatively prefer Mr. Trump (more on that point below), because the act of being “faithless” is an act, essentially, of support for the runner-up. And this after Mr. Biden has won the election (at least, by all popular reports). It might be that Mr. Biden is not overly popular with some in the Democratic Party. But convincing these electors now to vote for someone else seems impossible.

Furthermore, these are electors in states that cast a plurality of their votes for Mr. Biden. Going to them and telling them to ignore the wishes of the voters in their own state for the wishes of Trump supporters is even more unlikely.

Second, the electors might need to flip to Mr. Trump, and not simply refuse to vote for Mr. Biden. In order for a candidate to win, he must secure 270 electoral votes. If he fails to do so, the race is thrown to the House of Representatives, where each state receives one vote, and a majority of the states (26) is required to secure the presidency. Even if enough Biden electors threw all their votes to, say, John Kasich, no one would have a majority, and the election would go to the House. While Democrats look to maintain control of the House, Republicans look to hold 26 state delegations (i.e., the majority), with perhaps 27 or 28. It’s true that the House could then vote for Mr. Trump on the heels of these faithless electors, but it remains a possibility that some Republicans in the House would be unwilling to do so.

It’s worth add that in the last 100 years or so, exactly zero “faithless” electors have “flipped” their support from the presumptive winner to the runner up.

Third, the margin of victory is onerous for Mr. Trump’s supporters. It appears Mr. Biden has won at least 290 electoral votes, meaning 21 electors would need to switch to Mr. Trump to deny Mr. Biden a majority, 22 electors to give Mr. Trump a majority, and 23 or 24 electors to account for Mr. Trump’s own possible "faithless" electors. Mr. Biden’s totals may well reach 306 electoral votes, meaning the numbers increase to 37, 38, and 39 or 40. (One can quibble over the numbers, of course. If Arizona swings back in Mr. Trump’s favor, perhaps it’s 295 for Mr. Biden. But these figures are all substantially over 270, and each vote margin becomes more difficult to overcome.)

These are Herculean numbers under almost any scenario. Consider that in the last 100 years (before 2016), just nine (depending on your math) electors have been "faithless" and voted for someone other than the person pledged to support. Granted, no such concerted effort has been made to change electors' minds. Robert M. Alexander has surveyed presidential electors and discovered that serious lobbying efforts have occurred before, and that about 10% of electors in previous elections have considered voting for someone else--but did not do so.

After the 2016 election, seven electors cast faithless votes. But five of those were supporters of Mrs. Clinton, the runner-up. Just two faithless electors cast votes against Mr. Trump—and neither threw their support behind Mrs. Clinton.

Fourth, several states bind their electors to the individuals they are pledged to support. Since the Supreme Court’s decision in Chiafalo, and since states like Washington and Iowa have tightened their faithless elector laws in the last four years, It would either limit the pool of possible electors who could change their minds or stir litigation, possibly in multiple states, that would inspire even greater complexity, particularly if Congress is faced with multiple slates of electors.

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In short, there is no realistic chance that the Electoral College will change the result of this election. This is different than saying it is not legally possible; as I've noted and defended repeatedly, electors are permitted to vote for whomever they desire—it is that there is essentially no likelihood enough of the would do so in such a way to change the outcome of the election. Circumstances change, of course, and something might still inspire a significant number of electors to change their minds and vote for someone else. But the odds are low. And we have fairly settled expectations that our electors will not be "faithless," something unlikely to change in the weeks ahead.