Rethinking the best debt metrics for evaluating law schools

Last spring, I critiqued the methodology used in the latest USNWR rankings that added a new indebtedness metric. USNWR chose two categories, one which it gave slightly greater weight than another: the size of the average loan incurred among law students who incurred law school debt (3%); and the percentage of law students who incurred debt (2%).

In my judgment, it is nonsensical to separate those categories, as it disproportionately favored $0 in loans to $1 in loans.

But an additional category to consider is debt-to-income ratio. This is admittedly an imperfect measure, like all measures. But I make the case for it here.

This post, then, is an effort to look at alternative measures of indebtedness and what might have been.

(This post may be best viewed on a desktop or on a phone sideways.)

First, I’ll offer a few snapshots of these alternative rankings. One is to compare the way USNWR does the ranking (separating indebtedness from percent incurring debt) with one metric that combines them. Among the ten schools that would perform the best in this new metric (based on scaled score) - that is, the schools that do better with my averaging of everything rather than two distinct categories. (By “rank,” I mean the rank among the indebtedness score.)

	Average debt among incurring	Pct debt	USNWR score	USNWR rank	Overall average debt	Overall average score	Overall average rank	Score delta
South Dakota	$53,253	80%	-0.03958	26	$42,602	-0.07447	8	-0.03489
Cleveland State	$69,727	90%	-0.00170	89	$62,754	-0.03420	52	-0.03250
Florida A&M	$61,500	81%	-0.02950	42	$49,815	-0.06006	17	-0.03056
Ohio Northern	$71,134	88%	-0.00479	83	$62,598	-0.03451	49	-0.02972
Nebraska	$63,027	78%	-0.03470	31	$49,161	-0.06136	14	-0.02667
Rutgers	$62,210	75%	-0.04213	22	$46,658	-0.06637	10	-0.02424
North Dakota	$67,281	78%	-0.03064	40	$52,479	-0.05473	26	-0.02409
Arkansas	$68,877	79%	-0.02690	48	$54,413	-0.05087	28	-0.02397
Texas Tech	$56,898	72%	-0.05385	7	$40,967	-0.07774	5	-0.02389
Utah	$76,344	85%	-0.00648	82	$64,892	-0.02993	57	-0.02345

And among the ten schools that would perform the worst - that is, that do better in the USNWR weighing than an overall average:

	Average debt among incurring	Pct debt	USNWR score	USNWR rank	Overall average debt	Overall average score	Overall average rank	Score delta
Southwestern	$190,184	82%	0.095404	183	$155,951	0.152034	183	0.05663
California Western	$164,918	88%	0.084622	182	$145,128	0.130406	182	0.045785
St Thomas University	$161,701	86%	0.077119	181	$139,063	0.118287	181	0.041167
Nova Southeastern	$155,193	87%	0.073132	180	$135,018	0.110204	180	0.037071
Columbia	$190,141	66%	0.05988	175	$125,493	0.09117	178	0.03129
Golden Gate	$151,854	83%	0.061078	176	$126,039	0.092261	179	0.031183
American	$159,723	76%	0.053056	172	$121,389	0.08297	173	0.029914
Harvard	$170,866	70%	0.050374	168	$119,606	0.079407	171	0.029032
San Francisco	$156,460	77%	0.052163	170	$120,474	0.081141	172	0.028978
Florida Coastal	$145,245	86%	0.06143	177	$124,911	0.090006	176	0.028576

Now, these “score deltas” really mean little unless one sees how the fit in with the remainder of the USNWR scoring. Most schools would be affected by no more than 0.02. But for the schools at the outer ranges, it can have a material effect.

Note, too, that the worst-performing schools all get a little worse—these schools are ranked between 168 and 183, near the bottom of the metric in the first place. The top schools, however, range from 7th to 89th in the original metric, suggesting some greater penalty for affordable public schools across the range who do not have a lot of people graduating with zero debt.

One more thought. What about comparing the schools’ rankings on a third metric, the debt-to-income ranking I’ve used before? To do that, I’ll include both the USNWR debt rank and the average debt rank, so you get a sense of ordinal place. I’ll then sort by debt-to-income ratio, with another rank to compare how schools compare against one another. Absolute debt matters, true. But debt is also relative, and what comes after the J.D. matters a lot to students, too. That entire list is below. (There’s also some lag by a year, but it should still be a useful point of comparison.)

	USNWR debt rank	Average debt rank	2019 debt-to-income ratio	Debt-to-income rank
BYU	4	2	0.76	1
Cornell	104	117	0.78	2
Northwestern	137	146	0.78	3
Stanford	100	113	0.80	4
Harvard	168	171	0.82	5
Duke	126	135	0.83	6
Penn	131	141	0.84	7
Virginia	133	139	0.90	8
Chicago	166	164	0.90	9
Hastings	122	122	0.94	10
Iowa	70	75	0.94	11
Washington University	25	35	0.94	12
Columbia	175	178	0.95	13
Wayne State	8	9	0.95	14
Illinois	13	25	0.96	15
Yale	102	115	0.97	16
Temple	53	53	0.97	17
Michigan	121	123	0.97	18
Georgia State	37	31	0.98	19
Vanderbilt	99	110	0.98	20
Texas	43	64	0.99	21
Alabama	5	3	1.00	22
Wisconsin	21	21	1.04	23
NYU	141	142	1.04	24
Kansas	55	51	1.04	25
Nebraska	31	14	1.04	26
Texas Tech	7	5	1.05	27
Tennessee	20	23	1.05	28
Arkansas	48	28	1.08	29
Boston University	44	61	1.09	30
Houston	38	44	1.10	31
Utah	82	57	1.12	32
Cincinnati	12	11	1.12	33
Missouri	18	16	1.13	34
Georgetown	135	144	1.13	35
UCLA	94	103	1.13	36
Oklahoma	10	22	1.15	37
Connecticut	32	40	1.15	38
North Dakota	40	26	1.16	39
Baylor	152	156	1.16	40
UNLV	36	36	1.17	41
CUNY	69	67	1.19	42
Boston College	60	78	1.19	43
Berkeley	124	130	1.20	44
Georgia	11	18	1.23	45
Rutgers	22	10	1.24	46
Villanova	28	37	1.25	47
Indiana-Bloomington	54	63	1.25	48
University of St Thomas	30	27	1.25	49
Mississippi	14	15	1.25	50
Drexel	19	20	1.26	51
Hawaii	34	42	1.27	52
Fordham	91	102	1.27	53
Penn State-Dickinson	1	1	1.29	54
Penn State-University Park	56	50	1.29	55
USC	110	120	1.30	56
Arizona	3	4	1.30	57
Tulsa	154	116	1.30	58
New Hampshire	62	43	1.33	59
Notre Dame	127	131	1.33	60
Florida State	23	12	1.34	61
George Mason	9	19	1.34	62
Mitchell Hamline	125	126	1.36	63
Washington	66	80	1.37	64
North Carolina	29	39	1.39	65
Case Western	57	69	1.41	66
Arizona State	45	54	1.43	67
LSU	63	72	1.43	68
Washburn	78	70	1.44	69
Richmond	90	94	1.44	70
Oregon	96	88	1.44	71
Duquesne	109	98	1.44	72
Florida	6	7	1.44	73
Northern Illinois	72	58	1.45	74
West Virginia	58	62	1.45	75
Akron	49	33	1.46	76
Washington & Lee	65	76	1.47	77
Indiana-Indianapolis	85	83	1.48	78
Pace	105	105	1.49	79
William & Mary	24	34	1.50	80
Ohio State	52	55	1.51	81
Montana	84	68	1.51	82
Quinnipiac	107	93	1.51	83
St Louis	101	97	1.51	84
St John's	86	95	1.52	85
Cardozo	33	56	1.53	86
Michigan State	92	86	1.54	87
Irvine	111	119	1.56	88
Texas A&M	51	46	1.56	89
Colorado	87	87	1.57	90
Northeastern	59	48	1.58	91
Arkansas	15	13	1.58	92
San Diego	132	137	1.59	93
New Mexico	68	66	1.60	94
Chicago-Kent	73	79	1.61	95
SMU	77	89	1.61	96
Kentucky	75	59	1.61	97
South Dakota	26	8	1.63	98
Buffalo	79	74	1.63	99
Memphis	80	71	1.65	100
Toledo	46	38	1.66	101
Wake Forest	61	73	1.66	102
Louisville	88	85	1.66	103
Minnesota	35	47	1.66	104
Cleveland State	89	52	1.68	105
Albany	119	92	1.68	106
Seton Hall	103	111	1.71	107
Wyoming	16	29	1.72	108
Syracuse	130	121	1.72	109
Brooklyn	76	84	1.74	110
Emory	81	91	1.76	111
Maryland	67	82	1.77	112
Tulane	129	136	1.79	113
Balitmore	138	127	1.79	114
Davis	39	60	1.81	115
Pittsburgh	106	101	1.81	116
Drake	98	99	1.83	117
Idaho	114	106	1.84	118
District of Columbia	142	124	1.85	119
Missouri-Kansas City	74	77	1.86	120
FIU	64	65	1.89	121
Santa Clara	165	167	1.90	122
Loyola-Chicago	71	81	1.97	123
George Washington	143	151	1.98	124
Loyola-Los Angeles	157	160	1.98	125
Lincoln Memorial	120	107	1.98	126
Northern Kentucky	93	90	1.99	127
Suffolk	118	114	2.03	128
Ohio Northern	83	49	2.04	129
South Texas	149	152	2.05	130
Western State	115	112	2.06	131
South Carolina	97	96	2.06	132
St Mary's	171	169	2.07	133
Catholic	159	161	2.07	134
Gonzaga	151	147	2.08	135
Southern Illinois	41	30	2.12	136
New York Law School	128	134	2.13	137
DePaul	134	133	2.13	138
Loyola-New Orleans	162	158	2.15	139
Chapman	167	170	2.20	140
Lewis & Clark	148	155	2.24	141
Regent	27	32	2.25	142
Howard	145	128	2.26	143
Florida A&M	42	17	2.27	144
Denver	164	168	2.28	145
Creighton	113	109	2.29	146
Pepperdine	140	145	2.30	147
Hofstra	123	129	2.30	148
California Western	182	182	2.33	149
Capital	116	118	2.35	150
Mercer	146	148	2.35	151
Detroit Mercy	2	6	2.35	152
Massachusetts-Darmouth	156	149	2.36	153
Widener Commonwealth	173	165	2.37	154
Seattle	158	157	2.45	155
Miami	117	125	2.46	156
Roger Williams	147	138	2.49	157
Belmont	95	104	2.50	158
Samford	112	108	2.50	159
McGeorge	178	177	2.55	160
Willamette	160	162	2.58	161
Stetson	139	143	2.59	162
American	172	173	2.70	163
Dayton	47	45	2.76	164
Golden Gate	176	179	2.84	165
Campbell	153	154	2.85	166
Illinois-Chicago	163	163	2.87	167
Marquette	169	166	2.87	168
Mississippi College	136	132	2.95	169
San Francisco	170	172	2.96	170
Nova Southeastern	180	180	3.14	171
Charleston	174	174	3.18	172
St Thomas University	181	181	3.23	173
Southwestern	183	183	3.40	174
Ave Maria	179	175	3.54	175
Florida Coastal	177	176	4.95	176
Maine	17	24	n/a	n/a
Liberty	50	41	n/a	n/a
Western New England	108	100	n/a	n/a
Faulkner	144	140	n/a	n/a
Vermont	150	153	n/a	n/a
Elon	155	150	n/a	n/a
Oklahoma City	161	159	n/a	n/a