With a sharp rise in LSAT scores, it's worth keeping an eye on the law school Class of 2024
The entering law school class, the Class of 2024, is a booming and highly-credentialed class. Applicants rose significantly (more than 12%), and while we’ll wait to see the final matriculant statistics until next month, that should translate into much higher incoming class sizes. One can attribute all sorts of causes, from the pandemic to politics, to the increased demand, mostly non-falsifiable narratives at this point.
But most surprising, in my view, is the sharp rise in LSAT scores. Those scoring 175 or higher were always a small band of applicants, but that pool more than doubled year over year. Those in the 170-174 LSAT band rose 56.5% year over year. And even the 160-169 LSAT band, which had over 13,000 applicants in 2020, rose more than 25%.
It’s possible, of course, that those more interested in law school were simply more highly credentialed this year and more likely to succeed on the exam. But I’d watch another factor that arose last year: the introduction of LSAT-Flex. That exam is online, unlike the traditional paper-and-pencil test in a limited proctored location offered at fixed times over the year. It’s also a shorter exam: LSAC reduced the number of sections from 5 (including one “experimental” section) to 3, a significant reduction in the “stamina” required to endure the exam.
I would be very interested to see the future psychometric studies from LSAC. I’d also be interested to see schools' 1LGPA correlations next year, and later whether the LSAT is as predictive of bar exam performance (standing alone, it is somewhat albeit predictive across law schools, more predictive when considered as a part of an index score, but much less predictive than 1LGPA or LGPA).
It could be that the test is now less predictive of 1LGPA performance given the changes in the exam. Or, perhaps, it’s actually more predictive, as the stamina components of the traditional format of the exam were less predictive. Or perhaps it has not changed at all, and the exogenous explanations are the right ones.
Whatever the case, it’s a significant shift worth watching in the years ahead.