February 2023 MBE bar scores fall to all-time record low in test history
After all-time lows in 2020, matched in 2022, the February 2023 administration of the Multistate Bar Exam has hit new lows. The mean score was a 131.1, down from 132.6 last year and 134.0 the year before. We would expect bar exam passing rates to drop in most jurisdictions. That’s off a recent high in 2011 of 138.6.
Given how small the February pool is in relation to the July pool, it's always hard to draw too many conclusions from the February test-taker pool. The February cohort is historically weaker than the July cohort, in part because it includes so many who failed in July and retook in February. The NCBE reports that 72% were repeaters, which also contributes to a weaker pool. That said, there are ominous signs for the near future, according to the NCBE report: “We saw a decrease in performance across all groups of examinees, and the decrease was the greatest (about two scaled score points) for likely first-time test takers.” The NCBE points to learning loss from the COVID pandemic, and it remains to be seen how much changes in law school education affected things. (But, frankly, I anticipated things could have been much worse last year, so there are a number of open questions, to be sure, about specific pedagogical issues, or specific issues relating to student wellness.)
As interest in law schools appears to be waning, law schools will need to ensure that class quality remains strong and that they find adequate interventions to assist at-risk student populations. Likewise, changes to the USNWR methodology may well increase the importance of the bar exam in the very near future.